Let’s delve a bit deeper into Chain $Link who’s circulating supply currently equals 360 million coins of 1 billion total supply. The 360 million tokens in circulation are from the public ICO in 2017. The rest are either held by team (roughly 300 million in total) or left to be earned by node operators as incentives which should include staking rewards once that feature goes live. Our window to look at is through the next projected large parabolic move which should gain steam the further we move from the next bitcoin halving date (sometime in May 2020.) Traditionally markets have slowly began to be more and more dominated by buyers as miners have less ammo for selling. We expect this to take place again rolling on through 2021 give or take. We will count team tokens in circulating supply as there is no point in discounting such a stat as if “they may hold.” We think it best to assume a majority of those tokens, if released by late 2021, will be sell orders placed or already filled. The thinking we have currently, since LINK is a legit tech start-up is that it could be valued similar to some newer tech stars who IPO’d in recent years such as snapchat (17 billion $), Fiverr (700 million$) and perhaps even Lyft(24 billion$). An average of there IPO marketcaps gives us 13.9 billion USD. We think it’s fair to say that this number could be seen or even well surpassed heading into the next parabolic run. Even if you were conservative and used half that number you’d be at a level that many coins such as monero, DASH and NEO have all reached. These are strong coins but not the top 5. LINK with it’s utility toward data and not only payments should carve it out a nice niche not right at the top but potentially in the top 10 realm.
Now the math, we have a conservative figure we want to use for supply, which includes team tokens, of 660,000,000 and a current coin price of $2.70. This gives us an unrealized marketcap of 1.72 billion USD. Next we divide $13.9B by $1.72B an come up with 8.08. We then multiply $2.70 by 8.08 and come up with $21.81 per a coin at what we deem a fair late-2021 marketcap realization of $LINK. So LINK right now, as well as many other projects are at a huge discount.
Also, take note this is just a fair-value evaluation and not a potential top. Crypto can get wild and it’s not unheard of for fair value to be easily doubled, tripled or quadrupled but just know that the LINK you hold over $21 – $22 range is potentially at a premium. Taking some profits around there or anywhere over is a huge win. Remember to always hold a few at the very least to support your favorite crypto projects also and who knows there could be a day where some or one of these altcoins are worth as much or maybe even more than 1 bitcoin.
By Sean Donato